Ecosyste.ms: Repos

An open API service providing repository metadata for many open source software ecosystems.

GitHub topics: seasonality

ourownstory/neural_prophet

NeuralProphet: A simple forecasting package

Language: Python - Size: 212 MB - Last synced: 1 day ago - Pushed: 17 days ago - Stars: 3,689 - Forks: 464

wwrechard/pydlm

A python library for Bayesian time series modeling

Language: Python - Size: 3.31 MB - Last synced: 7 days ago - Pushed: 8 months ago - Stars: 468 - Forks: 97

advaitsave/Introduction-to-Time-Series-forecasting-Python

Introduction to time series preprocessing and forecasting in Python using AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, SARIMA and Prophet model with forecast evaluation.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 2.02 MB - Last synced: 5 days ago - Pushed: over 5 years ago - Stars: 306 - Forks: 138

davidellavalle/Capital-Bikeshare

Data Analysis of Capital Bikeshare

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 173 MB - Last synced: 24 days ago - Pushed: about 3 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

chaos-genius/chaos_genius

ML powered analytics engine for outlier detection and root cause analysis.

Language: Python - Size: 9.88 MB - Last synced: 15 days ago - Pushed: about 1 month ago - Stars: 705 - Forks: 81

bhattbhavesh91/time-series-decomposition-from-scratch

A small walk through on how we can decompose a time series into trend, seasonality and residual

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 971 KB - Last synced: about 1 month ago - Pushed: about 3 years ago - Stars: 6 - Forks: 19

RamaGovinda2928/Forecasting

Forecasting

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 5.1 MB - Last synced: about 2 months ago - Pushed: about 2 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

SanderBos1/Time_series_analyser

A web application that makes it possible to analyse time-series data. Using techniques for seasonality and trend detection and Granger causality

Language: Python - Size: 718 KB - Last synced: 2 months ago - Pushed: 2 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

LaurentVeyssier/time-serie-Sales-forecasting-with-Prophet

Use Facebook Prophet model to forecast Sales including seasonality patterns

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 1.7 MB - Last synced: 2 months ago - Pushed: over 3 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

b1llywitant0/Time-Series-FB-PROPHET

A real world data analysis and time series forecasting using FB Prophet #3

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 3.02 MB - Last synced: 3 months ago - Pushed: almost 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

OHDSI/Castor

An R package for characterizing temporal data using non-parametric methods for exploratory time series analysis.

Language: R - Size: 134 KB - Last synced: about 2 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 4 - Forks: 0

suryateja0153/Time-Series-Australia-Beer-Production

ML models to predict beer production in Australia based on various KPI's.

Language: R - Size: 628 KB - Last synced: 5 months ago - Pushed: over 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

KrishnanSG/holt-winters

The repository provides an in-depth analysis and forecast of a time series dataset as an example and summarizes the mathematical concepts required to have a deeper understanding of Holt-Winter's model. It also contains the implementation and analysis to time series anomaly detection using brutlag algorithm.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 675 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: about 3 years ago - Stars: 43 - Forks: 11

secil-carver/Time-Series-Analysis

Analyze trends and forecast daily revenues.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 871 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

choisy/tb_seasonality

Walker et al. (2022) Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Transmission in Birmingham, UK, 2009–19. Lancet Reg Health Europe. 17: 100361 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100361

Language: HTML - Size: 4.77 MB - Last synced: 6 months ago - Pushed: 6 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

Innovation-tech-max/US-COVID-cases-prediction

Time series analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 (US) using Neural Network and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 642 KB - Last synced: 6 months ago - Pushed: about 3 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

to-schi/seasonality-clustering

Plotly dashboard for the analysis of seasonality patterns in e-commerce product categories

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 566 KB - Last synced: 6 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 2 - Forks: 0

dilsaddt/AldabraAtoll_Aldabra_giant_tortoise_seasonal_habitat_use

Analysis of seasonal habitat-use patterns of Aldabra giant tortoises of Aldabra Atoll, Seychelles using temporary emigration models.

Language: R - Size: 61.5 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 7 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

dilsaddt/NorthAnatolia_2022_singlesp_seasonal_habitat_use

Single-species, dynamic occupancy models to investigate seasonal habitat-use patterns

Language: R - Size: 137 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

dilsaddt/NorthAnatolia_2023_multispecies_seasonal_cooccurrence

Multispecies occupancy models to investigate seasonal co-occurrence of predator-prey pairs and changes withing these co-occurrences.

Language: R - Size: 537 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 6 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

dilsaddt/mlemur_seasonal_survival_0923

Seasonal survival analysis of the gray mouse lemur population in Kirindy Forest, Madagascar using multistate capture-recapture models.

Language: R - Size: 47.9 KB - Last synced: 6 months ago - Pushed: 9 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

farrellwahyudi/Investigate-Hotel-Business-using-Data-Visualization

This project delves into Indonesia's dynamic hospitality industry, uncovering seasonal booking trends, the impact of stay duration on cancellations, and how lead time affects cancellation rates. Valuable insights guide hotels to optimize pricing, policies, and customer engagement, enhancing competitiveness in the Indonesian hospitality sector.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 896 KB - Last synced: 7 months ago - Pushed: 7 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

vaitybharati/Forecasting_Model_based_methods

Splitting data into Linear Model, Exponential, Qaudratic, Additive seasonality , Additive Seasonality Quadratic , Multiplicative Seasonality, Multiplicative Additive Seasonality. Prediction for new time period

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 3.91 KB - Last synced: 8 months ago - Pushed: over 3 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

isis-santos-costa/when-riders-meet-drivers

💹 seasonal patterns to GROW REVENUE • 2023

Size: 315 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 8 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

ChintanSatishShah/SBCapstone

Capstone project for SpringBoard AI/ML Certification

Language: Python - Size: 5.48 MB - Last synced: 8 months ago - Pushed: 8 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

wywongbd/EPFL-Time-Series

MATH-342 Time Series course taken at EPFL during Spring 17-18.

Language: R - Size: 8.24 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: about 5 years ago - Stars: 2 - Forks: 1

DylanBartels/coin-prophet

BTC trading volume seasonality

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 375 KB - Last synced: 9 months ago - Pushed: over 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

ManojKumarMaruthi/Time-Series-Forecasting

Forecasting Monthly Sales of French Champagne - Perrin Freres

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 1.57 MB - Last synced: 7 months ago - Pushed: almost 5 years ago - Stars: 22 - Forks: 9

Dylan-Cmt/SeasonalEpid

An open-source package written in Julia for seasonal plants epidemics

Language: Julia - Size: 290 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 9 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

jparkington/Project-Derailleur

Shifts gears through various data science techniques to analyze and visualize bike sharing trends, using the UCI Bike Sharing Dataset.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 36.4 MB - Last synced: 5 months ago - Pushed: 5 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

ICESAT-2HackWeek/dzdt

Using ICESAT-2 to detect topographical changes over land surfaces, in particular permafrost

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 19 MB - Last synced: about 2 months ago - Pushed: 10 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 2

matthieumeo/prism

Spline-based regression and decomposition of time series with seasonal and trend components.

Language: Python - Size: 16.2 MB - Last synced: 10 months ago - Pushed: about 1 year ago - Stars: 5 - Forks: 1

Balajimohan18/Milk-Production-Time-Series-Forecasting-Datascience-Project

This project uses time series forecasting to predict future milk production. The data used in this project is monthly milk production data from January 1962 to December 1975. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is used to forecast the milk production. The model is evaluated using various metric.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 5.67 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

bala-1409/Milk-Production-Time-Series-Forecasting-Datascience-Project

This project uses time series forecasting to predict future milk production. The data used in this project is monthly milk production data from January 1962 to December 1975. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is used to forecast the milk production. The model is evaluated using various metric.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 6.28 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

shridhar1504/Milk-Production-Time-Series-Forecasting-Datascience-Project

This project uses time series forecasting to predict future milk production. The data used in this project is monthly milk production data from January 1962 to December 1975. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is used to forecast the milk production. The model is evaluated using various metric.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 5.67 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

ty1erz/seasonality_and_crime

This is a project investigate the seasonal pattern of crimes in NYC and Chicago

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 9.59 MB - Last synced: 11 months ago - Pushed: about 1 year ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 1

Popseli/Forecasting-Industrial-Production-of-Electric-and-Gas-Utilities

This project builds a time series model that forecasts a 3-year industrial production of electic and gas utilities in US.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 4.79 MB - Last synced: 11 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

danielsobrado/notebooks_invest

Analyze historical market data using Jupyter Notebooks

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 9.27 MB - Last synced: 11 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 6 - Forks: 4

KevinDepedri/AI-for-Finance

Stock market prediction on 5 italian companies using VAR model, OLS regressions and LSTM recurrent neural networks over data retrieved from Refinitiv Eikon

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 5.67 MB - Last synced: 11 months ago - Pushed: 11 months ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

ShubhamMore4/Project-Stock_Price_Prediction

Predict the apple stock market price for next 30 days. There are Open, High, Low and Close price has been given for each day starting from 2012 to 2019 for Apple stock.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 581 KB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: about 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

shanuhalli/Assignment-Forecasting

Forecast the Airlines Passengers and CocaCola Prices data set. Prepare a document for model explaining. How many dummy variables you have created and RMSE value for model. Finally which model you will use for Forecasting.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 3.29 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 1

dianamerchan91/Proyecto12_Series_Temporales

Modelo de machine learning con series temporales que predice la cantidad de taxis para la próxima hora.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 929 KB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: about 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

doongeon/ARIMA-seasonal-model-and-intervention-analysis-with-R-korean

Basic ARIMA seasonal model and intervention analysis with R korean

Language: R - Size: 5.86 KB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

lucasmoschen/time-series

Studies and homework of the Time Series course at FGV EMAp.

Language: R - Size: 25.4 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 3 years ago - Stars: 2 - Forks: 1

semihdesticioglu/SalesForecasting

Sales Forecasting with Time Series Analysis by using ARIMA and SARIMAX.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 1.97 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: over 3 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

manasik29/Forecasting_Energy_Consumption_Project

Hourly Energy Consumption Forecasting

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 20.5 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

SohamBera16/Time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-using-tunnel-traffic-data

Finding out various components like trends and seasonality in the time series describing tunnel traffic.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 2.13 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 3 - Forks: 0

mchamochin1/Pricing-Predictions-on-Energy

Predictions on energy prices across EU countries

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 3.91 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: 5 months ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

huytjuh/Subsequence-Time-Series-Clustering

Extending state-of-the-art Time Series Forecasting with Subsequence Time Series (STS) Clustering to enforce model seasonality adaptation.

Language: Python - Size: 148 KB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 4 - Forks: 0

imane-ayouni/TESLA-stock-price-forecasting

Time series forecasting techniques to predict TESLA's stock price

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 646 KB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 1

Giannischri/SeasonalityDataViewer

Moving average /seasonality on weka data

Language: MATLAB - Size: 3.91 KB - Last synced: 11 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

nekovin/Store_sales_time_series_analysis

A simple timeseries analysis of Ecuador store sales from 2013-2017.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 280 KB - Last synced: 2 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

2004-ind/Forecasting_With_Prophet

Time series analysis and forecast interpretation for decision making with Prophet

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 3.55 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

schatzederwelt/taxi-demand-prediction

Прогнозирование спроса на такси

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 1.01 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

course-dprep/what-influences-AirBnB-prices

Estimating the effect of Hawaiian AirBnB listing characteristics, the time until the booking starts (in days) and the season on the price per night.

Language: R - Size: 622 KB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 2 - Forks: 3

erma0x/hp-filter-app

App: Hodrick–Prescott filter for seasonality decomposition with Microsoft stock price time series data.

Language: Python - Size: 16.3 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

LouisTier/Time_Series_Project

Prediction of the evolution of time series, with or without seasonality

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 5.07 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

doscsy12/insurance_data_analysis

Business analytics in life insurance.

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 1.7 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

carmenpfoster/project

Semesterproject - GEO880 Comuptational Movement analysis - spring semester 2022

Language: HTML - Size: 17.7 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 1

YingluDeng/Time-Series-Analysis-for-Ecology-and-Environmental-Sciences

Time Series in PM2.5 Data Exploration and How the Environment Affects PM2.5 in Beijing

Language: HTML - Size: 3.78 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: about 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

rahman-rakib/Temperature_Forecast

Time series analysis based on Berlin-Templehof area’s historical data of daily temperature, taking into account trend and seasonality issues. Produced a 3-day forecast with only 4% error

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 904 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: about 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 1

ReflectiveEarth/reflective-seasons

An empirical analysis of Earth's seasonal surface reflectivity potential

Size: 16.6 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: over 1 year ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

hhk998402/Time-Series-Forecasting-SARIMAX

Using SARIMAX for Time Series Forecasting on Seasonal Data that is influenced by Exogenous variables

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 882 KB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 5 years ago - Stars: 3 - Forks: 4

swarna0712/Stock-Prediction-Time-Series-Data-Analysis

Auto ARIMA Model

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 13.7 KB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

lucasresck/time-series

Assignment codes for Time Series (2020, FGV)

Language: HTML - Size: 3.71 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: over 3 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

lucasresck/time-series-2 Fork of lucasmoschen/time-series

Assignment codes for Time Series (2020, FGV)

Language: R - Size: 25.4 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: about 3 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

salimandre/power-consumption-forecasting

Time series forecasting using different methods.

Language: R - Size: 2.07 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: about 4 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

viniciusov/candy-production

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 265 KB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 4 years ago - Stars: 2 - Forks: 1

a-sauvaget/panier-de-saison

"Panier de saison" est une application Web destinée à tous. Elle a pour but de proposer la liste des fruits et légumes disponible (de saison) à la vente mois par mois.

Language: PHP - Size: 25.2 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: about 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

AVoss84/seasonal

R code for the paper 'Forecasting seasonal time series data: a Bayesian model averaging approach'

Language: R - Size: 43.9 KB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 3 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 2

harisshh/Time-Series-Forecasting

Forecasts the quantity we want to find using the trend the series depicts

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 136 KB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: almost 3 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

ColinShaw/cyclic-poisson-forecasting-models

Various models for forecasting Poisson processes with cyclic underlying variability

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 2.88 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: about 6 years ago - Stars: 2 - Forks: 0

jonohewitt/locavore

A website and PWA for helping people enjoy eating locally, seasonally and sustainably, starting with a focus in Brussels.

Language: TypeScript - Size: 16 MB - Last synced: 4 months ago - Pushed: over 2 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

abidmuin/TensorFlow-in-Practice-Specialization

TensorFlow in Practice Specialization

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 5 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: about 4 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

MrRaghav/airbnb-in-berlin-2020

A data mining project to analyse Airbnb's data of Berlin for the year 2020 using KDD

Language: Jupyter Notebook - Size: 1.79 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 3 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

eelabfiu/seasonal_PR

This repository contains methylation AFLP data as employed in Rodríguez-Casariego et al., Frontiers in Marine Sciences, 2020: "Genome-wide DNA methylation analysis reveals a conserved epigenetic response to seasonal environmental variation in the staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis"

Size: 338 KB - Last synced: 11 months ago - Pushed: almost 4 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

atecon/season_plot

Buys Ballot plot as a graphical method for detecting seasonality

Language: Makefile - Size: 305 KB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 4 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 0

atecon/decomposition

Seasonal decomposition of time-series (classical, STL) for gretl

Size: 2.47 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 4 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

jssasan/ARIMA-Time-Serie-Analysis-of-SandP-Housing-Price-Index

Language: R - Size: 1.34 MB - Last synced: over 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 7 years ago - Stars: 1 - Forks: 1

nsdumont/Spatial-Epidemics-Dynamics-and-Synchronization Fork of 4MB3-ModelStudents/Project

Final Project for a Mathematical Biology course

Language: TeX - Size: 50.2 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: almost 7 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 1

Stuart-D-King/the_hub

Seasonality and text analysis of Boston Airbnb data

Language: HTML - Size: 6.2 MB - Last synced: about 1 year ago - Pushed: over 6 years ago - Stars: 0 - Forks: 0

Related Keywords
seasonality 81 time-series 31 python 18 time-series-analysis 14 forecasting 14 arima-model 13 trends 11 trend 10 arima 8 data-visualization 8 stationarity 7 time-series-forecasting 7 machine-learning 7 data-science 7 data-analysis 6 linear-regression 6 sarimax 6 timeseries 6 acf 5 bayesian 5 holt-winters 5 r 5 prediction 5 lstm 5 autocorrelation 5 decomposition 4 trend-analysis 4 pandas 4 eda 4 exponential-smoothing 4 pacf 4 sarima 4 statsmodels 4 arima-forecasting 4 visualization 4 forecasting-models 3 imperfect-detection 3 jags 3 regression 3 habitat-use 3 ets 3 random-forest 3 prophet 3 sarima-model 3 anomaly-detection 3 xgboost 3 sarimax-model 3 statistics 3 rnn 3 adf 3 exploratory-data-analysis 3 prophet-model 3 dickey-fuller-test 2 autocorrelation-function 2 jupyter-notebook 2 holt-winters-forecasting 2 pacf-autocorrelation 2 residuals 2 hansl 2 gretl 2 plotting 2 timeseries-analysis 2 predictions 2 airbnb 2 timeseries-forecasting 2 gru 2 differencing 2 keras-tensorflow 2 python3 2 machine-learning-algorithms 2 matplotlib 2 moving-average 2 stock-price-prediction 2 seaborn 2 occupancy-modeling 2 large-mammals 2 camera-trap 2 holtwinters 2 arma 2 series 2 neuralprophet 2 preprocessing 2 dickey-fuller 2 neighborhood 2 analytics 2 neural-network 2 prophet-facebook 2 deep-learning 2 partial-autocorrelation 2 sales 2 artificial-intelligence 2 customer-segmentation 1 life-insurance 1 movement-analytics 1 weather 1 wildboars 1 business-analytics 1 simple-exponential-smoothing 1 forecast 1 prediction-markets 1